News & Analysis

Opportunities await trading the JPY

31 August 2022 By Adam Kahlberg


With central banks aggressively hiking interest rates to combat inflation, one specific country stands alone in maintaining a dovish stance. The country is Japan, and the consequence of the Central Bank of Japan’s ultra-dovish policy has been a massive weakening of its currency. Against almost all other currencies the JPY has been depreciating aggressively. Specifically, the USD/JPY and the NZD/JPY are shaping as potentially trading opportunities. Both trading opportunities are largely based on a technical breakout as opposed to a pure fundamental breakout.






This currency pair is forming into a symmetrical triangle pattern. Importantly the price has been contracting and the range getting smaller. This shows that the price is reaching an equilibrium point between buyers and sellers. However, at some point and the price will not be able to contract further and will have to break out either to the upside or the downside. The general rule of a symmetrical triangle is to wait until the price breaks before taking a position because the price has not indicated if it will break upward or downward. In addition, the RSI indicates a similar pattern showing consolidation in the same type of triangle. Therefore, a break of this RSI triangle may correlate and support a break out on the actual price.





This pair has seen an even more extreme move upward. After pulling back to the recent support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the price has risen again and is looking to test the highs at 139.5 JPY. In order to find a new target the chat needs to be zoomed out to the monthly in order to see the next resistance point which is at 145JPY. This would also take the price to almost 25 year highs. With more economic data to come out of the USA later this week.



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