News & Analysis

Stocks down, USD and Yields up ahead of key FOMC meeting

2 November 2022 By Lachlan Meakin


US stocks slid in a choppy session where a positive open soon sold off sharply on the back of a positive JOLTS report sparking a “good news is bad news” reaction in equity markets.

The JOLTS survey showed that job openings surged in September, rising to 10.72 million, well above the expected 9.85 million, this saw rate hike odds soaring ahead of the pivotal Fed meeting tomorrow.

A 75bp hike tomorrow is almost fully priced in (Fed Fund futures showing a 84.1% probability), but a less certain path is ahead namely in the December and February meetings, which will make the accompanying statement and press conference being the most important part of tomorrows FOMC meeting as traders look for clues where the Fed is heading.

In FX – The US Dollar shot higher, mirroring US 10 year bond yields as the market priced in a more hawkish Federal reserve after the big upside surprise in the JOLTS figures. The US Dollar index breaking back and holding above 111.

In commodities, Crude oil  jumped after the JOLTS data indicated the US job market is still showing strength, dampening recession fears. Though the gains were mostly retraced in a choppy second half of the session, ahead of today’s important EIA report on US Crude inventories.

Natural Gas tumbled on warmer than usual winter weather forecasts which will result in lower demand for heating fuels, allaying traders fears of tight supplies.

In Economic releases, the big one to watch for will be the FOMC Monetary Policy statement. This has been one of the most anticipated Fed meetings this year, while a 75bp hike is almost a lock, expect some volatility around the statement and press conference as traders look for clue as to where the Fed is going next.

We also have ADP employment change, which may give some clues to the closely watched Non-farm payrolls on Friday.

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