News & Analysis

Reserve Bank of Australia surprises the market by lifting cash rate by 25 bps

4 October 2022 By Adam Kahlberg


The Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has surprised much of the market by raising the country’s cash rate by just 25 basis points. With analysts expecting a more aggressive 50 bps hike, the smaller lift will provide relief to much of the country’s housing market and equity market. RBA, Chairman, Phillip Lowe outlined how previous rate rises had already begun struggling with the previous rate rises.

International volatility has also become much higher with retirement funds in the UK needing to be bailed out by the Bank of England after the funds found themselves inundated with the liquidity issues due to spikes in yield on many of the UK government bonds that they were holding. With the global financial system so interconnected there was a very real chance that a trillion dollars’ worth of bonds would be exposed without intervention effecting far more then just the UK’s financial system. In addition, worries over both Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse also being in trouble with their risk of defaulting potentially increasing. This had the RBA worried that the situation could turn very quickly in Australia and sparked the lower rate.

With relatively low rates of inflation the RBA has had more flexibility to adjust the aggressiveness of its hikes as it has gone along and todays changes showed that. The bank still expects inflation for the year to be between 6-7 %.



In response to the hikes the AUD dropped sharply on the news falling by 0.52%. Australian equities saw a large jump increasing by 0.93% for the half an hour after the announcement. With inflation still at elevated levels, there is no guarantee that the lower rate hikes will continue.

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